For the great majority of the nation, the off-year elections will not have an immediate practical impact. However, Tuesday is the first significant voting day since the 2024 election victory of President Donald Trump, and the results will have a significant influence on future political conflicts.
Since Trump has thrown himself into several of the most watched contests, they are partially a referendum on his performance thus far as president. Trump asserted at a rally that the energy policy of Democratic candidate for governor of New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill, will "end up doubling and tripling your energy costs." He has referred to Zohran Mamdani, who is predicted to win the New York mayoral election over former Governor Andrew Cuomo, as "a 100% Communist Lunatic."
Recent polls have shown that Trump's own economic initiatives are failing. According to a CNN/SSRS poll issued Monday, over two-thirds of Americans believe that the economy is "poor" or "extremely bad." Should the GOP have a poor showing, it would be confirmed that those worries will cause problems for Republicans in subsequent elections.
The results of the four races are the main focus of political commentators.
It is generally anticipated that Mamdani, a democratic socialist, will win the mayoral election in New York City against Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa. Cuomo, who is predicted to lose in part because he would split the Republican vote with Sliwa, received a last-minute endorsement from Trump.
Trump's support is probably insignificant given Mamdani's margin. Investors on the betting site Polymarket rated Mamdani a 92% chance of winning as of Tuesday morning.
Additionally, Democrats are practically guaranteed to win two gubernatorial races. To replace Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin in Virginia, former Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger is predicted to defeat incumbent Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. According to Polymarket, Sherrill has an 82% chance of defeating Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey in a contest that is marginally tighter.
Lastly, a referendum that would restructure California's electoral map and give Democrats five more members in the House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections is currently up for vote. In order to harm Trump and thwart a partisan gerrymander in Texas that would deny Democrats five seats, Governor Gavin Newsom has marketed the referendum.
Last week, Newsom advised supporters not to make any more contributions because he is so sure the vote will succeed.
All things considered, the 2025 elections are thought to be the first opportunity for voters to express their satisfaction or dissatisfaction with Trump's reign thus far. They might be a precursor to the 2026 midterm elections for Republicans, depending on the outcome. According to a survey average, 42% of Americans approve of Trump's performance as president, while 54% disapprove.
by the newsletter Strength In Numbers.
In a research note released last week, Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, stated that a good showing by Democrats "would imply that the party is posed to regain the House in next year’s midterm elections."
Gardner pointed out that historically speaking, Democrats are a strong bet to win the House in any event. The party out of power has gained seats in 18 of 20 midterm elections since World War II, with an average gain of 25 seats. They only need three seats to restore control.